Se non l’avete visto: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid-2020-recession-how-to-res... <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid-2020-recession-how-to-res...> La pandemia avrà l’effetto di accelerare processi già in corso e francamente, secondo me, sottovalutati. We know from both economic theory and history that markets alone are ill suited to manage such a transition, especially considering how sudden it has been. There’s no easy way to convert airline employees into Zoom technicians. And even if we could, the sectors that are now expanding are much less labor-intensive and more skill-intensive than the ones they are supplanting. Moreover, in the case of the pandemic, there will be a third effect: rising inequality. Because machines cannot be infected by the virus, they will look relatively more attractive to employers, particularly in the contracting sectors that use relatively more unskilled labor. We shouldn’t bail out firms – like old-line retailers – that were already in decline before the crisis; to do so would merely create “zombies,” ultimately limiting dynamism and growth. Nor should we bail out firms that were already too indebted to be able to withstand any shock. Now that government spending is being unleashed on a massive scale, the public has a right to demand that companies receiving help contribute to social and racial justice, improved health, and the shift to a greener, more knowledge-based economy.
Sull'argomento segnalo questo articolo sul ruolo dello Stato nell' economia a seguito della pandemia. https://voxeu.org/article/state-ownership-will-gain-importance-result-covid-... È essenziale che si dibatta e si definiscano i settori strategici meritevoli di intervento. Luigi Il mar 7 lug 2020, 13:10 Giuseppe Attardi <attardi@di.unipi.it> ha scritto:
Se non l’avete visto:
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid-2020-recession-how-to-res...
La pandemia avrà l’effetto di accelerare processi già in corso e francamente, secondo me, sottovalutati.
We know from both economic theory and history that markets alone are ill suited to manage such a transition, especially considering how sudden it has been. There’s no easy way to convert airline employees into Zoom technicians. And even if we could, the sectors that are now expanding are much less labor-intensive and more skill-intensive than the ones they are supplanting.
Moreover, in the case of the pandemic, there will be a third effect: rising inequality. Because machines cannot be infected by the virus, they will look relatively more attractive to employers, particularly in the contracting sectors that use relatively more unskilled labor.
We shouldn’t bail out firms – like old-line retailers – that were already in decline before the crisis; to do so would merely create “zombies,” ultimately limiting dynamism and growth. Nor should we bail out firms that were already too indebted to be able to withstand any shock.
Now that government spending is being unleashed on a massive scale, the public has a right to demand that companies receiving help contribute to social and racial justice, improved health, and the shift to a greener, more knowledge-based economy. _______________________________________________ nexa mailing list nexa@server-nexa.polito.it https://server-nexa.polito.it/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/nexa
Buongionro Giuseppe, Giuseppe Attardi <attardi@di.unipi.it> writes:
Se non l’avete visto:
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid-2020-recession-how-to-res... <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid-2020-recession-how-to-res...>
Anche se forse un po' OT rispetto al focus della lista, direi che è proprio un bell'articolo e che molto di quello che tratta avrà pesanti ricadute anche nella sfera del digitale, che funzionerà da ulteriore acceleratore di processi in corso Però non tutti la pensano come Stiglitz: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/v-shaped-recovery-could-still-h... --8<---------------cut here---------------start------------->8--- Since March, I have been more open than other commentators to the possibility of a “V-shaped” recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn (though I have also consistently warned of structural challenges facing many economies in the decade ahead). Wherever I have expressed this optimism, I have met with pushback, given the apparent depth and scale of the current crisis. And yet, as we move into July, many classic short-term leading and coincident indicators still point to a V-shaped recovery, as does the Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane. Despite the complications thrown up by COVID-19, the same weekly and monthly indicators that I have long relied on remain useful for separating signal from noise. During my early days as chief economist for Goldman Sachs, I helped to develop a “Global Leading Indicator” (GLI) index, which was designed to be equally accurate but faster than the OECD’s longstanding index, as well as more predictive of financial-market behavior. Since leaving the financial industry seven years ago, I have continued to monitor the publicly available components of the GLI each month. These include US manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs); new orders relative to inventories; US weekly unemployment claims; the Belgian business-confidence survey; and South Korean monthly export figures. And for additional hints about the state of the global economy, one can also follow well-known PMI surveys from other countries, as well as monthly surveys like the Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany. Crucially, many similar indicators are available for China, and are generally more reliable than that country’s critics would have one believe. [...] --8<---------------cut here---------------end--------------->8--- Quindi PARE che il mercato FINANZIARIO tornerà a galoppare meglio di prima e la parabola del capitalismo completerà il suo naturale corso storico... e io sono davvero ansioso di vedere come andrà a finire [1] :-) A meno che si realizzi quanto auspicano (da anni) Mariana Mazzuccato e Antonio Andreoni nel loro articolo https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/conditional-bailouts-of-private... «No More Free-Lunch Bailouts» --8<---------------cut here---------------start------------->8--- With governments spending on a massive scale to save industries and mitigate the economic fallout from COVID-19, they should be positioning their economies for a more sustainable future. Fortunately, far from remaining taboo, using state aid to change private-sector behavior has become common sense. --8<---------------cut here---------------end--------------->8--- e di conseguenza il sistema economico capitalista sarà finanziariamente controllato dalle nazioni e non "autogestito"... possiamo chiamarlo social-capitalismo? :-D Però io ho la netta impressione che, in occidente, è il settore privato che sta letteralmente cambiando il COMPORTAMENTO degli stati (diciamo più di quanto lo abbia fatto in passato), non viceversa. :-O [...] Grazie, Giovanni [1] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1536504213487704 «Marx on finance» -- Giovanni Biscuolo
On Tue, Jul 07, 2020 16:05:54 PM +0200, Giovanni Biscuolo wrote:
Però non tutti la pensano come Stiglitz: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/v-shaped-recovery-could-still-h...
Since March, I have been more open than other commentators to the possibility of a “V-shaped” recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn...
infatti il problema e' PROPRIO il fatto che potrebbe ancora accadere. Il rischio e' proprio quello di (voler) tornare ("a V", ma se fosse a L, Z, M, quello che vi pare sarebbe uguale) esattamente alla stessa economia profondamente cretina che c'era l'anno scorso. Marco -- M. Fioretti http://mfioretti.com http://stop.zona-m.net Your own civil rights and the quality of your life heavily depend on how software is used *around* you
participants (4)
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Giovanni Biscuolo -
Giuseppe Attardi -
Luigi Scorca -
M. Fioretti