Predictive Policing Software Is More Accurate at Predicting Policing Than Predicting Crime

By Ezekiel Edwards, Director, ACLU Criminal Law Reform Project

August 31, 2016 | 12:15 PM


“Predictive policing” has an enticing ring to it. The idea is that you feed a bunch of data into a mysterious algorithm, and poof, out comes intelligence about the future that tells police where the next crime is going to occur, or even who is going to commit it. What’s not to get excited about?

Unfortunately, many predictions made by policing software don’t come true. This is because predictive tools are only as good as the data they are fed. Put another way: garbage in, garbage out.

Data collected by police is notoriously bad (we don’t even know how many people police kill every year), easily manipulated, glaringly incomplete, and too often undermined by racial bias. When you feed a predictive tool contaminated data, it will produce polluted predictions. In fact, it appears predictive policing software is more accurate at predicting policing than predicting crime. Rather than informing us where criminals will be and when they will commit crimes, these algorithms more reliably predict where the police will deploy.

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Continua qui: https://www.aclu.org/blog/speak-freely/predictive-policing-software-more-accurate-predicting-policing-predicting-crime