This article argues that the current hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) exhibits characteristics of a tech bubble, based on parallels with five previous technological bubbles: the Dot-Com Bubble, the Telecom Bubble, the Chinese Tech Bubble, the Cryptocurrency Boom, and the Tech Stock Bubble. The AI hype cycle shares with them some essential features, including the presence of potentially disruptive technology, speculation outpacing reality, the emergence of new valuation paradigms, significant retail investor participation, and a lack of adequate regulation. The article also highlights other specific similarities, such as the proliferation of AI startups, inflated valuations, and the ethical concerns associated with the technology. While acknowledging AI's transformative potential, the article calls for pragmatic caution, evidence-based planning, and critical thinking in approaching the current hype. It concludes by offering some recommendations to minimise the negative impact of the impending bubble burst, emphasising the importance of focusing on sustainable business models and real-world applications, maintaining a balanced perspective on AI's potential and limitations, and supporting the development of effective regulatory frameworks to guide the technology's design, development, and deployment. Luciano Floridi https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4960826 1. Introduction The tech industry has seen several dramatic booms and busts over the past few decades. These periods, often called “tech bubbles” (see section 2), have significantly impacted economies, industries, and individual fortunes, influencing political economies and even international relations, especially between the US and China. In this article, I analyse the morphology of tech bubbles, extract some invariants and lessons, and argue that the current hype surrounding Artificial Intelligence (AI) may be considered a tech bubble leading to a new AI Winter. In section 2, I briefly analyse what a tech bubble is. In section 3, I outline some of the most notable tech bubbles, examining their causes, characteristics, and consequences. I summarise some criteria to identify a tech bubble in section 4, and argue, in section 5, that the AI hype qualifies as a tech bubble, and that its bursting may lead to a new AI Winter. In section 6, I conclude by looking into what could be done to prevent the worst consequences of such a scenario. -- -- EN https://www.hoepli.it/libro/la-rivoluzione-informatica/9788896069516.html ====================================================== Prof. Enrico Nardelli Past President di "Informatics Europe" Direttore del Laboratorio Nazionale "Informatica e Scuola" del CINI Dipartimento di Matematica - Università di Roma "Tor Vergata" Via della Ricerca Scientifica snc - 00133 Roma home page: https://www.mat.uniroma2.it/~nardelli blog: https://link-and-think.blogspot.it/ tel: +39 06 7259.4204 fax: +39 06 7259.4699 mobile: +39 335 590.2331 e-mail: nardelli@mat.uniroma2.it online meeting: https://blue.meet.garr.it/b/enr-y7f-t0q-ont ====================================================== --
