[Submitted on 17 Mar 2023]

GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models

Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin, Daniel Rock
We investigate the potential implications of Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) models and related technologies on the U.S. labor market. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their correspondence with GPT capabilities, incorporating both human expertise and classifications from GPT-4. Our findings indicate that approximately 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs, while around 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. The influence spans all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure. Notably, the impact is not limited to industries with higher recent productivity growth. We conclude that Generative Pre-trained Transformers exhibit characteristics of general-purpose technologies (GPTs), suggesting that as these models could have notable economic, social, and policy implications.
Subjects: General Economics (econ.GN); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Computers and Society (cs.CY)
Cite as: arXiv:2303.10130 [econ.GN]
  (or arXiv:2303.10130v1 [econ.GN] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2303.10130