Ci sono diverse ragioni per cui l'AI in generale (non solo la generative AI) non sostituirà la maggior parte dei lavori, oltre all'architettura e al training. Due motivi principali
sono:
(1) L'AI fungerà più da supporto (augmentation) piuttosto che da sostituzione.
(2) Negli Stati Uniti, i settori in cui si prevede una massiccia introduzione dell'AI soffrono già di una carenza di personale.
https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/3/9/pgae320/7758639
Questa visualizzazione non è super stabile, ma rende l’idea del punto (1)
https://social-dynamics.net/aii/
From:
nexa <nexa-bounces@server-nexa.polito.it> on behalf of Enrico Nardelli <nardelli@mat.uniroma2.it>
Date: Sunday, 9 February 2025 at 18:10
To: Nexa <nexa@server-nexa.polito.it>
Subject: Re: [nexa] "A new look at the economics of AI"
Grazie Juan-Carlos.
"The new paper" a cui l'articolo fa riferimento è “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI,” pubblicata su "Economic Policy" nell'agosto 2024
https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy/article/40/121/13/7728473 , ma uscita già come preprint nel maggio dello stesso anno.
Il paragrafo conclusivo mi sembra molto ma molto esplicito su quale sia la situazione attuale e i problemi da risolvere (grassetto mio).
My assessment is that there are indeed much bigger gains to be had from generative AI, which is a promising technology, but these gains will remain elusive unless there is a fundamental reorientation of the industry, including
perhaps a major change in the architecture of the most common generative AI models, such as the LLMs, in order to
focus on reliable information that can increase the marginal productivity of different kinds of workers, rather than prioritizing the development of general human-like conversational tools. The
general-purpose nature of the current approach to generative AI could be ill-suited for providing such reliable information. To put it simply, it remains an open question whether we need foundation models (or the current kind of LLMs) that can engage
in human-like conversations and write Shakespearean sonnets if what we want is reliable information useful for educators, healthcare professionals, electricians, plumbers and other skilled workers.
Ciao, Enrico
Il 08/02/2025 08:33, J.C. DE MARTIN ha scritto:
https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/a-new-look-economics-ai
"Estimating that only about 5% of tasks will be able to be profitably performed by AI within that time frame, the GDP boost would likely be closer to 1% over that period, Acemoglu suggests. This is a “nontrivial, but modest effect, and certainly much less than both the revolutionary changes some are predicting and the less hyperbolic but still substantial improvements forecast by Goldman Sachs and the McKinsey Global Institute,” he writes."
Opps.
jc
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